Mass emergences of moths from conspicuous gregarious-phase caterpillars in high densities are important sources of migrant moths, which are borne downwind to cause a progression of armyworm outbreaks northwards from Tanzania to Ethiopia, and southwards from Rhodesia to South Africa. This progression might possibly be checked by destroying outbreak caterpillars. The sources of moths which cause the first outbreaks before the progression starts are not known, and the possibility is examined that these come from scattered populations of solitary-phase caterpillars hidden at the bases of green grasses, where they are sometimes found at considerable density. Recent analyses of weather patterns on the estimated dates of arrival of the moths responsible for fourteen groups of outbreaks in Rhodesia suggest that outbreaks could often be caused by convergent windflow concentrating low-density moth populations from sources between Rhodesia and the Mozambique coast, and that these sources may persist for several months. A model is presented which attempts to relate the phase forms found in the field with the life system of the armyworm.